Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Shooting Prognosticators In A Barrel

This post concerns a prognostication from the Conservative blogger Rusty Shackelford that turned out to not be that accurate. As well as another from the Libertarian Willis Hart that came closer, but still missed the mark.

Rusty Shackelford: Shit... even Rusty could write the Republican AD's for 2012, fish in a barrel. In 2008 Obie was just the former community organizer and junior Senator without a past. In 2012 he will be forced to run on his record and all the flowery hope and change B.S. wont mean a thing. (7/6/2011 AT 9:28pm).

Willis Hart: In a normal environment, I would probably agree with you, Russ. But with the Republicans currently in such disarray (and even unpopular in certain states like Florida or Ohio) and the huge dissatisfaction with the Republican field, I would have to give Mr. "Obie" (why do you have to call him that, Russ - he is the President, after all?) at least a 50-50 chance next year... Me - I'd still like to see Bloomberg get in. (7/6/2011 AT 9:28pm).

Obviously we know that Barack Obama retained the presidency when the votes were tallied. Much to the chagrin of Karl Rove, who, I'm convinced, was positive that GOP operatives had fixed the results for Romney. (see second video below).

Whether Anonymous prevented the election from being fixed or not, Rusty was obviously dead wrong with his prediction. Willis Hart's prediction of 50-50 was essentially meaningless, as around 50-50 is how presidential elections have been going for awhile now. As for Obama winning due to "the Republicans currently in such disarray", I say... maybe.

They certainly did their damndest to obstruct the Obama agenda and to purposefully hold back a recovery (as per their Caucus Room Conspiracy). And it met with a lot of success, in that the recovery was weak and the American people were fooled (blaming the Obama Administration for Republican obstructionism). This, plus the normal dirty tricks (disenfranchising voters as well as vote manipulation) and they got close.

But the disarray, I believe, is not something that can be categorized as "current". I would say current and ongoing. If by "disarray" you mean not appealing to a majority of the voters. However, if by "disarray" you mean not cheating to the max, then no, they I say they are still working that game.

Working it because it is the only way they can win (by cheating). By the way, even though bush LOST the popular vote by 543.89 thousand in 2000, and "won" it by 3.01 million in 2004, the conservative media declared that the 2nd "win" was a decisive mandate for bush's agenda.

Compare that to Obama, who won the popular vote by 9.55 million in 2008 and 4.98 million in 2012 - and he has no mandate for his agenda. If he spent his political capital to pass the ACA, then why didn't Republicans accept it as the "law of the land" instead of (futilely) voting to repeal it so many times?

Instead he is actively obstructed. Even when Obama attempted to meet the Republicans halfway and included ideas in his legislation that previously received Republican support!

My point is that Obama's record is more the Republican's record (of obstruction). He would have done MUCH better if the GOP had acknowledged HIS mandate (a mandate larger than bush's). So - Rusty wrong in regards to Obama running on "his record" in 2012 and Willis wrong in regards to the Republicans being in "disarray". Both wrong in regards to Obama's chances of winning. He won by a narrower margin than in 2008, but still came out further ahead (popular vote wise) than did bush when he ran against Kerry in 2004 (Obama won that one with 1.97 million more popular votes than bush).

In regards to Willis defending Obama re Rusty's disrespect (don't call him Obie)... NOW the Hartster says he does not like him personally as well as politically (5/11/2013).

Video1: Fox News, Karl Rove Argue Over The Outcome In Ohio (2:50).

Video2: Sam Seeder discusses the claim by the hacker group Anonymous that they prevented Karl Rove from stealing the 2012 election (2:43).

Update 2/7/2018: Rational Nation makes a prediction and Rusty Shackelford responds.

Rational Nation: ...don't be at all surprised when the next real crash happens, as it surely will. When it does it will partially the result of excessive deregulation. But don't take my word for it. Listen to credible economists. Something trump is not. (2/6/2018 AT 2:12pm).

Rusty Shackelford: ...he doesn't deserve a retort for his silly childish comments. He runs around numerous blogs making stupid predictions that are always wrong. Notice that when I pinned him down on his idiotic "real crash" comment he hauled ass. (2/6/2011 AT 5:57pm).

OST #67

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